Sunday, August 10, 2008

the chinese century and you can take it with you

Watching the opening ceremony for the 2008 Olympics one could only be thoroughly impressed with the Chinese. It was a truly incredible and moving show, but it also showed us a lot about the Chinese we did not know.

There has been a lot written about the 1.3 billion people in china. Our biggest corporations have gambled a lot of time and money to the Chinese market. The old joke was that a billion people would need a lot of deodorant. Ha Ha.

Well after seeing the technology and the huge number of people who all performed flawlessly in the opening ceremony's. It is clear while we have been selling them right guard they have been developing technology way beyond anything we have, and organizing into a country that can meet the goals it sets for itself. It all began in the 1980s when we started building factories in china to build our computers. It would appear that they kept a few computers for themselves. Of course it was the height of American arrogance to think the Chinese would stay our manufacturing slave colony forever.

The 21 century belongs to china. One important reason is her enormous population. It is historical fact that for a country to prosper it needs a large, healthy, and educated population. While America has refused to consider universal care and has dumbed down public education and made Private education so expensive it has turned into a survival of the fittest scenario. The Asisn countries have done the opposite and have prospered. Perhaps instead of figuring out new ways milk every last drop of equity out of anything possible and leave only debt in our wake. We should try putting America back on track with that quaint old fashion idea " Made In America "

On a totally different subject. There has been a subtle population shift in America. As more suburban homes have gone into foreclosure. more and more of these homes have been rented to section 8 people. This has resulted in a rise in crime in what used to be expensive suburban communities. Which has resulted in lowering already falling home prices.

The main motivator in this is the federal section 8 program. Which subsidises 60% of the rent for the poor people in the program. It has the unfortunate effect of putting the local police in position of having to deal with big city crime that never would have occurred if it had not been for a federal program that gave people something they did not earn. It also puts the local school districts in a position where these districts have to deal with problem students, and more of them.

The interesting part is that the federal government has from forced busing to forced integration now to forced housing imposed programs on the states and municipalities. That only move the problems from the inner cities to the suburbs. The question " is this fair to anyone involved and has it worked " This is an issue that is at the heart of the racial problems in this country. Is this they way to solve this problem?

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

credit crisis/or doing the "Float"

Welcome to the credit crisis.It is the end of a long road that started in the good old days 1960-1970. It all started with the " Float ". The float was the period of time between when a bank borrowed money from the Federal Reserve and than paid it back . This normally a period of 30 days. So what ever money the bank could make in that 30 days was profit made from the " Float ". This what the IRS does with our tax refunds. The IRS keeps the excess tax it collects, Than gives it back later. The " Float works best when a big sum of money is used. That is when you can make a healthy profit. If done right with no risk.

Then came the Plastic age . The ordinary person could get a credit card and have 30 days to pay off the balance and pay no interest. It is a good deal if you can do it. finally the little guy could play the " Float " This worked especially well for small business. If they could buy merchandise and sell it with in 30 days they could pocket the profit. Like all good plans this has a flaw . It is called Reality.

The Reality that over the years Americans have become more dependent on the float for everyday living {gas and groceries}and has found it increasingly difficult to pay off the balance every month. So much for the " Float " . Our good Friends at Visa and Master charge are here to help. You can transfer your balance from the bad old high interest card to the new friendly low interest card. With Friends like these you do not need any enemies.

So it began transferring balances around never actually paying the balance off, always paying interest. Remember this easy wealth building trick. Make interest , do not pay interest, this really works ,at any income level. See it is easy to be a finical advisor . Some brokers will charge 300.00 for that kind of shrewed analysis. Anyway it is not a hard or complicated trick but, With the price of the afore mentioned gas and groceries going up at a dizzying rate. It will be even harder to pull off.

How did it get this way. Think about this, up until the 1980s most of the goods consumed in America were made in America. From industrial to personal goods, This kept a balance. We consumed about as many goods as we manufactured. By the end of the 1970s most corporations were planning on moving the manufacturing out of America, to places where labor was cheap and few if any annoying pollution laws.

The Exodus started and never stopped. helped along by President Clinton when he signed the NAFTA agreement. One can only surmise that Mr. Ross Perot has a hearing defect. That huge sucking sound he heard had been around since 1980. The sound he heard was corporate America rushing to the profit trough.

Long story short. This produced an excess of goods to be purchased. What to do, Americans still had the same amount of money. The path was clear give them more credit. Buy today , pay tomorrow. This has grown to buy now to pay next year. It resulted in people who should have never been given credit were given far to much. Home buyers were forced into paying way to much for homes. The value of the homes was based on a shortage of houses and the belief the price could only go up . So if you wanted in on this bubble you had pay ante up big time.

Well we all know how this whole credit and housing bubble is falling apart. This is one possible result. What if credit was frozen. This would be the great equalizer. Everyone from the lowest wage slave to the top 3% richest Americans depends on the " Float ". If everyone had to pay cash for everything it would slow consumption down and eventually it would come back into balance again. Remember the problem we have now it to many goods chasing to few dollars. This is called Deflation.

To base an economy on consumption was madness that the American government supported with our tax dollars. Corporate America knew this could not last forever, but they wanted to milk it for every nickle of profit possible. So the coming slowdown or depression is really just a leveler to put us back in balance. It is going to be hard . Let us hope we can learn from this and come out smarter. Could be bright new future if handled right. Who can do it McCain or Obama?

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Barak we hardly knew you

Barak Obama is not happy about the new yorker magazine cover showing him and his wife as the Republicans have tried to paint them. The magazine cover express in a cartoon all the word pictures the Republicans have drawn of Barack and Michelle Obama in the past nine months. It exposes the use of fear in politics. It could be viewed as a good idea to expose the myths about Barak and Michelle. Hold these myths up to the ridicule of satire. This is the intelligent view.

Unfortunately Mr. Obama and his followers have taken the outrage view. while has-been Rev.Jessie Jackson who illustrates how the old civil rights crowd who is no longer civil nor alive most of them, feel about the new civil rights crowd. It is hard to understand how Mr Obama can be talking down to Blacks when he tells them they need to take more responsibility for their lives and their children's lives. Could it be that the Rev. Jessie Jackson represents the entitlement generation. While Mr. Obama represents the opportunity generation?

One of the untalked about problems is that the prisons in America are full of African American men and women. So short of taking their children to jail with them it would be difficult for them to take more responsibility for them. Coupled with the fact there has developed a prison culture among in the African American community which glamorizes gang and prison life. Creating even more crime and prison sentences. A cycle of failure. Whew no wonder no one is talking about this.

The other untalked about problem started 150 years ago after the Civil War the federal government made an attempt at that time to correct racial injustice. The Feds called it Reconstruction. It gave favorable treatment to former slaves,who not having a basic education were unable to take advantage of these opportunities.Were exploited by white promoters. This is where we got the term " carpet baggers" The exploiting of Black contractors who get preferential treatment in bidding for government contracts, by Bigger white contractors still happens everyday. This is where we get the term Diversity. It does not take much imagination to understand how white Southerners who lost literaly everything they owned in the Civil War felt about this.

So after 150 years of trying to use legislation, the courts, and often the police to create and enforce racial justice. We have arrived at a point where. White America no longer cares about the problems of the African- American community, The African Americans still feel they are entitled to something. Though obviously they can not agree what that " something " is. While the Hispanics just want to take California back to Mexico.

This is where the outraged Barack finds himself. It is ironic that he does not seem bothered by the fact that Hilary Clinton has been dragged through the mud a hundred times by the media. Depicted in every negative way possible. But she is still smiling and fighting for what she believes in.

Is this what we can expect from President Obama. Outrage and Indignation every time the media runs a critical cartoon of him or his wife? Is this the inexperience Hilary talked about? Is this all because Barak and his wife are Black? Is it a Black thing, Whitey can't understand?

These are questions that we should all hope are answered by the time the Democratic convention rolls around. FYI. Barak is giving his acceptance speech at Mile High stadium in Denver instead of the convention hall. Draw your own conclusions about that.

Saturday, July 5, 2008

the dumbing down of america

There has been a noticeable trend over the past twenty five years, it has become more apparent in every election cycle that it costs more money to win elections. It is staggering the millions it costs to run for even mayor of a big city. This is really old news. The interesting question is why.

Let us turn the clock back to 1976. Before this time, political contests were usually decided in smoke filled back rooms where the Big Money Boyz called the shots. This started to change after World War 2 when servicemen and women started using the G.I. Bill to go to college. This was the first time the working class was given access to higher education. This was expanded after the Korean war. The effect was that America had an army of engineers to win the space race against the Soviets.

During the Vietnam war draft deferments were given to men in college and thanks to LBJ. Student loans were easy to get. So the colleges were full with so many young people getting a liberal education. It was only natural that as these young people grew up and learned how the government was supposed to work, they became increasingly dissatisfied with how the government really worked. So began all the movements.

The civil rights, environmental, and war protest movements. The environmental movement has been the most enduring of the all the movements. The government made the movement official by creating a Department of the Environment. Which has been in court battles with the Congress to enforce the environmental laws ever since. Draw your own conclusions about that.

So a well educated and healthier population decided to take a more active role in elective government. Barack Obama being the most dramatic example of this grass roots movement. Barack will run against McCain who will be backed by the Big Money Boyz, But Barack will win. Because we are at one of those important turning points in history where the old system no longer works and is replaced with a new system, and only history will tell us whether it works better than the old system.

There is a trend that has been developing for at least the past twenty years. The cost of a college education for the middle class has gotten more expensive and the government is paying far less. Veterans were the first to feel it as the military started scaling back on how much college it would pay for. Even as good paying manufacturing jobs started leaving America. The American middle class was required to pay for more of their children's higher education. If you happened to be divorced the government will force you to pay for your child's education, but if you stayed married your child is on his own. How is that for irony.

America is way behind in the math and sciences which means engineering and anyone who can read knows that. Has the government done anything special to improve this situation? The answer is NO. Most middle class young men and women even with scholarships graduate with crushing debt in student loans. Could it be that the government or the Big Money Boyz are tired of all these young people knowing how the system should work and trying to change the way it does work. Trying to take back the power of the people.

Hilary Clinton proposed universal health care in the early 90s and has been vilified and murdered in the press ever since. Is it just a conspiracy theory? Or is there a movement by the powers that run this country to dumb-down America? The public schools are a shambles. Those who do not get an education have a very good chance of ending up as guests of the justice system. Not everyone of course, but enough people that the states can not afford to house them.

It is simple but true that a well educated and healthy population benefits everyone. When the least of us do better we all do better. Politicians always talk about the American spirit of innovation. This means more than devising ways to borrow money and create hallucinated wealth. It means having a well educated and healthy people who have the tools to create and engineer solutions to the big and very serious problems that face this nation and the world. Which movement are you a part of?

Sunday, June 22, 2008

oils well that ends well/ the real plan

Mission accomplished again. Real President Dick Cheany is working on the last step of his energy plan. Open the American coasts for oil drilling! This is the plan that was worked out 7 years ago when Real President Dick Cheany met with oil executives in an energy summit. It was a closed door summit and what was discussed was never revealed. Even though Congress held a special session to force Dick Cheany to reveal the energy plan. He just flipped them off.

So for the past 7 years we have had an energy plan, but no one was allowed to know what it was. Let us look at what has happened. A war in Iraq. According to Geo. Bush (who, by the way, was not at the secret energy summit), the Iraqis were going to pay for their liberation with their own oil. It has happened alright, but it happened like this. Iraq made a record amount of money selling their oil in the last year, but the profit all went to American contractor Haliburton who has supplied all the equipment and services for a war no one wanted. How nice of Haliburton to set the stage for thousands of people to die on. While they supply all the props necessary at a healthy profit of course.

Phase 2 of the energy plan. Keep all oil priced in dollars. Ron Paul is right since we went off the gold standard. The value of our money has been backed by oil. It is the only currency OPEC accepts for their oil - who said they hate us. What they hate is how well we live. 80% of the Arab world lives in poverty and ignorance, while the sheiks live in unimaginable luxury. That is why the people will kill for Islam because they have nothing to live for.

Phase 3 Gas at 3.00, then 4.00 dollars a gallon. The Saudis have said that oil should not be selling for more than 70.00 a barrel and they have agreed to pump even more oil this summer.This will not help because China and India will suck up the excess. In these countries and Mexico the price of gas is subsidised. Americans are one of the few countries that pay market price thru the nose.

The oil companies are making record profits and Duyba and Dick are after all oil men. Do you really think these two and all the rest of the oil executives care how the average American pays for gas and food. Remember they tell themselves that we will just have to work harder and sacrifice a little more. No problem for the American spirit.

Phase 4 Open both coasts and Alaska to drilling for oil and natural gas. This was the ultimate goal right from the start. The oil companies are not turning the profits towards exploration for new sources of oil because they already know where it is. It is right off of the coasts of this country. The oil companies say they can not build new refineries because of the environmentalists. Believe me they will not build a new refinery until they start drilling in Alaska and off the coasts.

Apparently they did not let Governor Arnold Shartznegger in on the plan because he has said he will fight until the end to prevent the drilling off the California coast. He has further stated and he is absolutely right. That all this is going to do is further our dependency on oil and delay alternative energy solutions, and ruin miles of beaches kill millions of birds and fish when the inevitable oil spills happen. That is why drilling was outlawed in the first place. Because of a oil spill off California in the 1980s. Oil rigs are floating disasters waiting to happen and do eventually . Just ask the Mexicans on the west coast of the gulf.

Everyone knows that the oil companies can not get the oil off the coasts to market for a least five years. That means it would not become gasoline for 5 years. So this national emergency that was created will not be helped. What will be helped is profits. I hope our next president is not a creature of corporate America. Where profit is the only mission.

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Barak Obama is he the MAN

He has that old black magic, excuse the racial pun no offense intended. It is ok because Barak can take a joke. But what about the rest of the African - Americans? One question I have not heard asked is how do black people in this country feel about a black president?. I work around a lot of Afican Americans, I have never heard them talk about it except that they are sure Barak will be assasinated before he gets elected.

In Kenya last Wednesday, the biggest newspaper in the country ran a full front page picture of Barak Obama with the caption "America finally walks its talk " . The Europeans love Barak. The only problem is that it creates the illusion that there is racial equality in America. America is more segragated now than it has ever been. No one talks about it anymore. Everyone knows the score and stays on their side of the invisible line.

Forty years ago in 1968 this country was coming apart at the seams. There were riots, peaceful demostrations and civil rights marches. In 1968 there was the Bobby Kenndy and MLK assainations. At a protest against the Vietnam war at Kent State, 4 college students were shot dead by the National Guard. 4 dead in Ohio. The race riots injured and killed even more.

The reason this is important is the economic crisis we are sliding into is going to make the issue of rights very important again. What is going to happen when there are gas riots and food riots? Think it cannot happen? It is happening all over the world right now. What will Barak do about civil unrest - call out the National Guard, or go declare a national emergency and start rationing. I think once Barack is sworn in you are going to see him exercise presidential powers we did not know existed.

Mr.Obama is a very charismatic man. Perhaps he can rally the nation around the themes of conservation and effcient use of resources and the devlopment of alternative energy sources. I love that phrase - it really says 'technolgies that have not been invented yet'. Perhaps he can give it the space race feel of the 1960's. But he is going to have to set down rules. Rules that some people are going to feel are wrong. Suppose Barak cuts the speed limit to 55 mph everywhere and goes to odd and even gas purchasing like we did in the early 1970s. Do most motorists feel it is their right to go 65mph?

You can see how this is going to work. Even the simplist restrictions on people's mobility is going to produce howls of protest and indignation. People in America today have a pretty good standard of living. It is going to interesting to see how nasty and outraged people are going to get when the going gets tough.

Barak Obama enjoys seeing others get the spot light and the love. I believe this is his greatest strength. He is going to have to manage the worst crisis in America's history and he going to need good people in positions of power and let them shine. It is going to be a rough four years. I have felt from the first time I heard Mr. Obama speak he had a undenible destiny. I hope for my sake and the sake of the country that he really is as special as he seems to be.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Magic Bus/or fast forward to 1973

The marketing boyz have started to wind up the propaganda machine. This time for a very good cause. CSX the railroad company is advertising how cheap it is to ship by rail. Like we used to do. RTS is advertising a dollar a day fare to ride the bus. Small cars are starting to sell at a premium . While the SUVs sit on dealers lots like sleeping giants. It is interesting in 1973 the Cadillacs and the Lincolns were the big gas guzzlers that rotted on dealers lots.

The marketing boyz are doing a good job this is one issue where good[propaganda]marketing helps everyone. The only way to really find a solution to the energy crisis is if we are all on the same page. We need to realize that we are all in this together. We are all equals at the gas pump.

Staycation is the new Buzz word in marketing. It means staying home and enjoying all the toys we have been buying for years. It is a good idea. I do not think the retailers are going to like it much. I think Americans are going to like this new lifestyle. Life is going to slow down and become more routine. Money will still be spent. Who knows maybe we will be forced into a cash society again. Instead of spending hallucinated wealth. Maybe we will be relaxed instead of stressed. Think how nice it would be to work from home or work 4 days a week.

So the baby boomers stumble senile like back into the 1970s as we again have gas crisis, stagflation and are fighting a war we can not win. The good news is that we have some positive factors in play. We are going to have a president who is going to radically change the way we operate.

Because of the low birth rate there is now a shortage of skilled and technical labor. Everything from auto mechanics to lab techs and insurance claim processors ect. Most important we have a generation of young people who are ready, willing and able to make change happen. America has been a country that belongs to the young. I only hope that the Baby Boomers will have the grace and diganty to know make way the changes that are coming,